Forests

Forest management plan validation gradually reduces forest loss in Congo Basin concessions
Abstract:

Forest management plans are central to regulations governing logging concessions in the Congo Basin, yet their long-term effectiveness remains uncertain. Here, we combine annual satellite-derived forest change data with administrative concession records and exploit variation in the timing of plan validation across five countries to assess how validation influences forest-cover dynamics from 2000 to 2020 using counterfactual impact-evaluation methods. We find that concessions with validated plans experience a gradual, sustained decline in forest loss, averaging 100 ± 44 hectares per year, equivalent to a 47% reduction relative to concessions operating without validated plans. Effects persist for up to 19 years and occur in concessions with and without independent third-party certification. These results indicate that accelerating the validation and implementation of forest management plans can substantially reduce forest disturbance in the Congo Basin.

Author names and affiliations:

Kenneth Houngbedji (LEDa -- IRD, Université Paris-Dauphine, Université PSL, Paris, France),
Marc Bouvier (Nitidae, Montpellier, France),
Antoine Leblois (Center for Environmental Economics Montpellier -- INRAe, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France),
Jean-Sylvestre Makak (Geospatial Company GEOCOM, Libreville, Gabon),
Benoît Mertens (Espace-Dev -- IRD, Montpellier, France)

Unlocking the Economic Case for Sustainable Peatland Management: Policy Lessons from Central Kalimantan, Indonesia
Authors: Rizky Januar (1), Eli Nur Nirmala Sari (2), Surahman Putra (1)
Affiliations: (1) Independent Researcher, Indonesia (2) Independent Researcher & Peatland Restoration Expert, Indonesia

Abstract:
Tropical peatlands are vital global carbon reservoirs and essential supports for rural livelihoods. However, extensive drainage for conventional agriculture and recurring fires have turned these ecosystems into major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. A primary barrier to scaling up restoration is the perceived economic trade-off between environmental conservation and local economic growth. Without landscape-scale economic valuation, policies struggle to secure local buy-in and attract sustainable climate finance.
This study evaluates the long-term economic trade-offs of land management scenarios in the Kahayan-Sebangau Peat Hydrological Unit (KHG)—a priority tropical peat landscape covering over 600,000 hectares in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Using spatial data, extended Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), and ecosystem service valuation models across a multi-decadal timeline, we quantified direct market yields alongside non-market values, including carbon storage, water regulation, and avoided fire damage.
The findings demonstrate that incorporating ecosystem services and avoided disaster costs reveals a significantly higher landscape-scale Net Present Value (NPV) for sustainable restoration and paludiculture compared to business-as-usual drainage models. The externalized economic damages from peat fires—borne by local public health and regional productivity—far outweigh short-term agricultural revenues from drained land. Deep peat zones yield maximum economic value when strictly protected, while degraded shallow zones achieve optimal performance through community paludiculture. These insights provide concrete frameworks to structure blended climate finance and integrate peatland protection into NDCs.

Evidence from forestry projects in the climate funds (AF, CIF, GCF and GEF)
Anupam Anand (Senior Evaluation Officer, GEF IEO) anand2@thegef.org; Michael Robert Ward (Senior Evaluation Officer, CIF) mward@cif.org; Vladislav Arnaoudov (Senior Evaluation Officer, AF-TERG),

varnaoudov@adaptation-fund.org; Yeonji Kim (Senior Evaluation Officer, GCF IEU) yjkim@gcfund.org

How are the four funds are supporting, individually and jointly, the forestry sector in line with their mandates and the goals of the UNFCCC and if these efforts have been transformative for the forestry sector?

The event will present a synthesis evaluation applying AI, as well as the overall experience of the four climate funds in application of AI in evaluations.

On the first level, this synthesis evaluation is guided by a set of evaluation questions, categorized into OECD DAC Criteria (relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, sustainability). The evaluation is strictly based on secondary evidence and does not make any independent assessments of the activities and projects.

On a second level, this is a synthesis pilot on the use of AI technology to support synthesis evaluations over large heterogeneous datasets. AI technology was applied throughout the evaluation to attempt to improve the quality and efficiency of the evaluation.

This is the first time stocktake and synthesis of evidence on forestry is done across the climate funds. The work provides important learnings for climate change mitigation and adaptation in the forestry sector, including programming, project implementation and sustainability of results.