Social Protection and Climate Vulnerability: Evidence on Systems, Climate Finance and Delivery

COP31 has been framed as the "Implementation COP" -the moment when the $1.3 trillion Baku-Belém climate finance commitment must translate into credible delivery mechanisms. Social protection systems are central to this challenge: they already reach hundreds of millions of people in climate-exposed communities, yet the climate finance architecture has largely overlooked them. Target F9 of the Global Goal on Adaptation now formally includes social protection, but programming and investment have not caught up.

This session brings together new evidence from four complementary perspectives -from the first systematic portfolio review of social protection across the Green Climate Fund, to livelihoods interventions in the Sahel, social dimensions of climate resilience in MENA, and UNICEF evaluation evidence on protecting children from climate shocks. Together, they make the case that social protection is not a development co-benefit but core climate finance infrastructure.
Session Objectives

• Present new evidence on social protection within climate finance portfolios, drawing on the first GCF-wide review conducted by Oxford Policy Management. 

• Examine what enables systems to anticipate, finance and respond to climate shocks, including coverage, delivery mechanisms, early warning, pre-arranged financing, institutional coordination and links to essential services. 

• Assess how climate and social protection systems can reach populations whose vulnerability is changing, including children, informal workers, displaced and mobile populations, and people living in informal settlements. 

• Identify practical steps for embedding social protection in nationally determined contributions (NDCs), national adaptation plans (NAPs), and climate finance proposals. 

• Build consensus on a COP31 call to action recognising social protection as scalable climate finance delivery infrastructure.

Session Agenda

Time 

Dur. 

Item 

Speaker 

15:30-15:35 

5 min 

Welcome, introductions and session framing: Social protection as climate finance delivery infrastructure 

Katherine Cooke (Moderator, Oxford Policy Management) 

15:35-15:42 

7 min 

Social protection and climate change: A portfolio and literature review (Green Climate Fund) 

Ana Solórzano (Independent, on behalf of Oxford Policy Management) & Katherine Cooke 

15:42-15:49 

7 min 

From Climate Shocks to Child Resilience: What Evaluation Tells Us About Systems, Financing and Delivery 

Denis Jobin (EvalSDG / UNICEF) 

15:49-15:56 

7 min 

Effect of the Great Green Wall Initiatives on Livelihood Capitals in the Frontline States in Nigeria 

Cecy Edijala Balogun 

15:56 – 16:03

7  min 

Climate vulnerability in MENA countries: Do social dimensions shape resilience? 

Imen Khanchel (University of Manouba) 

16:03-16:25 

24 min 

Moderated discussion & audience Q&A: Moving from evidence to implementation 

All presenters, facilitated by Katherine Cooke 

16:25-16:30 

5 min 

Closing synthesis: Key messages for COP31 and call to action 

Ana Solórzano (Independent, on behalf of Oxford Policy Management)